Food inflation makes eating out more expensive, but you can keep enjoying restaurants by changing when you go, what you order and how often, rather than giving them up. Restaurant prices in the US have been rising faster than grocery prices for several years, so the meals out you keep should be the ones worth the most to you. The walkthrough below follows a typical month of dining and shows exactly where the savings come from.
Key takeaways
- Restaurant prices have been climbing faster than their long-run average, so plan for that rather than hoping it reverses.
- Start with a month of real spending data before changing anything.
- Shift timing (lunch and early evening) and format (sharing, starters) before cutting meals entirely.
- Protect the meals that matter and trim the routine ones.
What food inflation looks like at restaurants
The USDA Economic Research Service tracks prices for food at home and food away from home separately. Its Food Price Outlook reports that food-away-from-home prices rose 7.7 percent in 2022 and 7.1 percent in 2023, then 4.1 percent in 2024 and 3.8 percent in 2025, still faster than their historical average of 3.5 percent per year. Grocery prices, by contrast, rose 1.2 percent in 2024 and 2.3 percent in 2025, below their historical average.
ERS also notes that the two measures diverged between 2009 and 2019, when grocery prices even fell in 2016 and 2017 while restaurant prices kept rising. Restaurant meals have steadily become a more expensive choice relative to cooking, and that is the backdrop for every decision below.
Step 1: Map a typical month
Say you live with a partner and you both work. In a typical month you have a couple of weekday lunches out each week, one or two takeout nights when you are tired, a weekend brunch, and one proper dinner out for a birthday or catch-up.
Write all of it down for one month, with the reason for each meal. The pattern usually becomes obvious quickly: the special occasions are few, and the routine meals make up most of the total. Our step-by-step guide to setting an eating out budget that sticks covers the tracking method in more detail.
Step 2: Sort meals by value to you
Now rank each type of meal by how much you would miss it.
| Meal type | How much you would miss it | First move |
|---|---|---|
| Birthday or celebration dinner | A lot | Keep; plan ahead and book |
| Weekend brunch with friends | Quite a lot | Keep, but share dishes or go earlier |
| Weekday lunch near work | Some | Halve it; bring lunch on other days |
| Tired-night takeout | Little | Replace with a quick backup meal |
| Coffee and snacks on the go | Little | Make at home most days |
The aim is not to strip the month bare. It is to move money from meals you barely notice to the ones you look forward to.
Step 3: Change when you eat out
Timing is the easiest lever. Many restaurants price lunch below dinner, and early-evening menus can cut the cost of the same dinner. In this walkthrough, the couple moves their monthly catch-up dinner to an early seating and uses a set menu. Our explainer on early bird specials shows what to check in the fine print.
They also move one weekend brunch to a weekday lunch on a day off, when some places run lunch specials.
Step 4: Change how you order
Next, the format. Instead of two mains, two starters and two drinks at brunch, they share one main, add a side, and drink tap water. At a mid-week dinner, they order appetizers as a meal rather than full mains. Both changes keep the experience and trim the bill.
Watch portion sizes too. When costs rise, a restaurant may adjust dish sizes or sides as well as prices, so a dish you order regularly may quietly arrive smaller. Comparing what is included, not just the name of the dish, keeps you from paying the same for less.
Step 5: Replace low-value meals, then review
Finally, the routine meals at the bottom of the table. The tired-night takeout gets replaced with a backup meal kept in the freezer. Two weekday lunches out become one, with packed lunches on the other days. Coffee on the go is made at home most mornings.
None of these feel like big sacrifices, which is why they last.
After a month, compare the new total with the old one. If the meals you care about are still in place and the total is lower, the plan works. If you missed something more than expected, add it back and trim elsewhere. Budgets that bend survive; rigid ones get abandoned.
It also helps to keep an eye on the bigger picture. ERS also tracks how much of disposable income goes on food away from home compared with food at home, and the away-from-home share has been growing for years. If your own share is creeping up, this walkthrough is a good place to start.
Frequently asked questions
Are restaurant prices rising faster than grocery prices?
In recent years, yes. USDA ERS data show restaurant prices rising faster than their long-run average in 2024 and 2025, while grocery price growth stayed below its average.
Should I stop eating out until prices fall?
That is rarely necessary. Changing timing, ordering style and frequency usually brings costs down enough to keep the meals out you value most.
How can I tell if portions have shrunk?
Compare the menu description with what you remember: piece counts, included sides and the size of the plate. If unsure, ask your server whether the dish has changed.
Start with one month of data
Food inflation is easier to handle when you know exactly where your money goes. Track one month, rank your meals, and shift timing and ordering before cutting anything you love. For more ways to get value from every meal out, see our value dining section.
